India - Nepal Bilateral Ties    

What is the issue?

• The new Nepali PM “Sharma Oli” has visited India in his 1^st foreign trip, which is now a longstanding tradition for Nepali PMs. 
• While Mr. Oli had a run in with India during his previous stint at the helm, he has currently displayed pragmatism by overlooking the bitterness of the past.   

What is the synopsis of Nepal’s chequered political history?

• Nepal’s political transition began nearly three decades ago when it adopted a new constitution in 1990 which ushered in multiparty democratic monarchy.
• But the rise of a violent Maoist insurgency that claimed 15,000 lives had eroded stability and the small democratic gains made. 
• Reconciliation with the Maoists stated in 2005, and a subsequent multi-party mass public uprising also saw the abolishing of the 250 year old monarchy. 
• Following this, a constituent assembly was elected for drafting the statutes for the new republic, but the process proved to be long and turbulent.
• This seven-year exercise finally produced a new constitution in 2015 and several elections were held 2017 and early 2018.
• Significantly, the local body elections were held after a gap of 20 years as political instability had hindered any chance of local governance.

How did the recent election results fare?

• Nepal has seen 25 PM in the past 27 years due to multiple coalition troubles and other political nefarious political bickering. 
• But in what could be a break from this trend, Mr. Oli’s UML party seems to have won big this time, which promises the much desired political stability.
• In the parliament, the UML alliance has secured a convincing majority of 174/275 in lower house and the alliance has a 42/59 in the upper house.
• Additioanlly, the UML had secured 294 of the 753 local bodies and most of the provinces also have UML CMs. 

What are the implications of Mr. Oli’s rise for India?

• Previously, when Mr. Oli had began his 1^st term as PM (that lasted just 9 months), the Madhesi agitations were at its peak. 
• Signficantly, Madhesis had protested against certain clauses in the new constitution, and India was accused of tacitly backing the agitators.
• All this created much bitterness between India and Nepal and Mr. Oli was openly reaching out to China as a counter-balance to India.
• Even in Mr. Oli’s election campaigns, there was a distinguishable anti-India Nepali nationalist tinge, which added to his popular appeal.
• But after the comfortable the win that has secured his position domestically, Mr. Oli has been visibly shrewd in recognizing India’s criticality.  
• India too had realised the need to befriend the new leader to prevent a pro-China tilt in Nepal’s polity and had proactively reached out to him.      
• Consequently, Mr Oli has began his 2^nd turn with a positive outreach to India and is probably signalling his intention to look beyond the past tensions. 
• As a result of all this back-track reconciliastions, his recent visit was smooth, but a sustained engagement by both sides is required to restore complete trust.

What were the specifics that emerged out of the current visit?

• A short joint statement was issued which stressed the need for strengthening relations on the basis of “equality, mutual trust, and respect”.
• Multiple contentious issues like “a review of 1950 Treaty, recruitment of Nepali nationals in the Indian Army” did not find mention.
• Also, resolving the fallout of India’s demonetisation exercise, that devalued a large trove of Nepali Central Bank’s Indian currency reserves wasn’t remarked.
• Madhesh issues, delays in hydel projects like Pancheshwar, and resumption of SAARC was also missed out. 
• But despite all these, this seems to be progress from Mr. Oli’s Feb 2016 visit, when there was no Joint Statement at all.

What are the important bilateral projects between India and Nepal? 

• For long, India has been Nepal’s biggest development partner, but the project implementation pace has been bad and there were also multiple cost overruns.   
• While both India and Nepal have a shared responsibility in this tardy work, the political instability in Nepal had worsened the shabby track-record.
• Hydel Projects – Despite its humongous hydro-electric potential, Nepal’s installed capacity is less than 700 MW and it imports power from India.
• Over 60% of the Ganga waters come from Nepal’s rivers namely - Sarda, Ghagar, Rapti, Gandak, Bagmati, Kamala, Kosi and Mechi.
• Misrepresentations have delayed India collaborated hydel projects for long, and it’s imperative to resolve these issues and push these projects ahead.
• ICP - The proposal for 4 Integrated Check Posts (ICP) on the India-Nepal border to facilitate movement of goods, and people was mooted 15 years ago.
• An MOU for the same was signed in 2005 but multiple administrative and political constrains delayed construction and costs overshot by 400%. 
• As a result, only the Raxaul-Birgunj ICP has been completed and was inaugurated last week.
• Petroleum Pipeline - Motihari-Amlekhgunj cross-border pipeline has now been started after almost 15 years since the MOU was signed. 
• Now, for the work to be completed within the planned 30 months, a brisk paced work and proper monitoring is needed.

What is the way ahead?

• Cultural and historical ties between the people in both countries is a big positive for in the relationship, but there are other aspects too. 
• Importantly, just like for India, globalisation offeres multiple opportunities for Nepal too and it is only logical that Nepali leaders aspire to capitalise on them.
• In this context, China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) currently appears attractive for the Nepali dispensation, despite some serious concerns.
• India would do good to recognize these aspirations and desires while simultaneously enhancing co-operation with our land-locked neighbour.
• Firstly, one should ensure that the ongoing projects like - border check-posts, rail connectivity, and Terai’s postal road network are executed to perfection.

Source: The Hindu