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IMD's Annual Summer Forecast 

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March 06, 2018

Why in news?

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has recently released its annual summer forecast.

What are the key aspects?

  • Summer - ‘Normal’ temperatures refer to the mean temperatures during a particular period (months) between 1981 and 2010.
  • IMD has forecasted a “warmer” than normal summer months from March-May.
  • Heat Waves - The IMD’s climate summary in January said that 2017 was the “fourth warmest year on record since 1901”.
  • Several parts of India, from Palakkad in Kerala to Mumbai, reported heat wave conditions.
  • They recorded day time temperatures greater than 35°C.
  • Increasing trends in the frequency and duration of heat waves over the country is also indicated.
  • This is attributed to increasing trends in the greenhouse gases emission.
  • The warming of the sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans is also a reason.
  • Regions - A harsh summer is awaiting certain states, with mean seasonal temperature-spikes likely to be greater than 1 °C.
  • These are J&K, Punjab, HP, west and east Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, west and east UP, west and east MP, Vidarbha, Gujarat and Arunachal Pradesh.
  • Certain parts would witness temperature rise between 0.5°C and 1°C from their historical normal.
  • These include Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema.

  • La Nina - La Nina is a weather condition that generally brings heavy rains to India.
  • Currently, the sea surface temperature conditions over equatorial Pacific suggest moderate La Nina conditions.
  • The IMD forecast indicates that La Nina conditions are likely to be moderate till spring (May-end).
  • They are likely to start weakening after spring.
  • But even if La Nina weakens, it is sure that El Nino (which negatively effects monsoon) will not immediately develop.
  • Given these, the prospects of a normal monsoon are more.
  • However forecasts before spring are prone to error, with better accuracy after May.

Why is the forecast significant?

  • A scientific estimate of annual mortality attributable to heat waves between 2010 and 2015 ranges between 1,300 and 2,500.
  • For many States, the summer of 2018 may pose a public health challenge.
  • Even a marginal rise above the normal may lead to enormous heat stress for millions of Indians, given the deprived conditions of life.
  • A heat event can lead to fatal heat stroke in some, and exhaustion, cramps and fainting in many.
  • Moreover, there are distinct groups at particular risk for health-related problems during a heat wave.
  • These include senior citizens and people with pre-existing disease, mental illness or disability.

What does it call for?

  • The IMD's forecast is a timely alert for State authorities to review their summer preparedness.
  • Interventions - States must facilitate for community-level interventions.
  • This is to deal with heat stress and particularly to help the vulnerable groups.
  • All stakeholders, including the health-care system, should be prepared to deal with the phenomenon.
  • Alerts - The World Health Organisation recommends that countries adopt heat-health warning systems.
  • This includes daily alerts on weather conditions.
  • This could ensure that people are in a position to deal with adverse weather, starting with reduction of exposure.
  • Water stress- Water stress is a common and often chronic feature in many States.
  • Arrangements should be made by the State authorities to meet possible water scarcity.
  • GHG - The average temperature caused by climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are perceivably linked.
  • Thus, taking a long-term view, India has to pursue mitigation of greenhouse gases.

 

Source: The Hindu

Quick Fact

La Nina

  • La Nina is associated with the cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • It favourably impacts the four-month long (June to September) south-west monsoon in India.
  • This is particularly critical to the rain-fed farming season which begins in June.
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