There is a predominantly youthful population in northern States and a maturing population in southern and western States.
This has induced series of migrations which might increase in future.
Does India have demographic divergence?
Most of the current and future demographic potential is locked in the northern States.
It is located in Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.
As per population projections, these five States will account for more than 55% of population growth in India till 2030.
Those who are under 15 years of age today will become India’s working population in the coming decades.
Almost every second person in this age group resides in these five States.
The proportion of the elderly population started increasing in the southern States.
Now, the phenomenon has extended to the western, extreme northern and eastern States.
This demographic divergence between States and regions is important from the policy perspective and forward-looking development planning.
What are the implications?
Southern states will require a young workforce to keep institutions functioning efficiently, and also to take care of the elderly.
This need is likely to be met by people from the youthful North.
Already the migration trend has started with established flows of young people from northern states.
The divergent demographic transition in the high-low Total Fertility Rate (TFR) states will add further impetus to this movement in the coming decades.
What should be done?
The challenges of moving into new communities that speak different languages and have different cultures need to be understood and addressed.
Along with the migrants, the issues of the locals must also be appreciated.
There is a need to gain deeper understanding of migration flows to address the changing need for housing and infrastructure, health care and utilities, education and skills.
States need to work together to provide portability of identity proof and entitlements.
There is a need to build support systems for families left behind.
