India can’t match China’s deep pockets to win allies.
Hence, it should consider deploying its soft power to further its vision and also simultaneously work out a strategic understanding with China.
What is the current international context for India?
2018 has been a year of the India-China relationship reset, with multiple events that have unfolded thus far:
Wuhan: Indo-China Informal Summit in April 2018
Singapore: Indian PM’s keynote address at “Shangri-La Dialogue”
SCO: ‘Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit’ at Qingdao, China.
All have sparked a lot of analysis as to what kind of strategic positioning India is gearing itself in the midst of U.S. and China’s assertion to global supremacy.
The Indian PM has proclaimed ambitions to garner influence in the Indo-Pacific region by increasing engagement with the ASEAN countries.
He further stated his intent in developing friendship with China, maintaining cordial ties with Russia, pursuing interests with Australia and U.S.
Nonetheless, tensions between India and China still impacts sea lanes, as both countries are actively pursuing individual interests in the Indo-Pacific region.
How is China challenging India in the Indo-Pacific?
India pursues influence through heightened diplomatic, bilateral and military engagement, among others to influence countries near it.
In contrast, China has started to garner influence through hard investments in cash-strapped littoral nations suffering from massive infrastructural deficits.
ASEAN - China’s heavy investments in ASEAN nations have brought these nations closer into its orbit of influence to a massive extent.
Notably, ASEAN didn’t even pursue the international ruling that barred Chinese activities in “South China Sea” vigorously.
China is today Cambodia’s largest provider of foreign aid and has invested in dams, oilfields, highways, textile operations and mines.
In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte has been seeking rapprochement with China, especially after his ties with the U.S. deteriorated.
Beijing provided rifles worth about $3.3 million to the Philippines police and guns worth $7.35 million to fight against Islamic extremists in Marawi.
Although India enjoys cordial relationship with all ASEAN nations, that alone possibly can’t make ASEAN states overlook China’s clout to endorse India.
ASEAN’s trade with China also far surpasses that with India, and Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in ASEAN is 9 times higher than India’s.
South Asia - Even here, which is culturally and geographically more compatible with India, China seems to be outsmarting India.
Countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka have been actively demonstrating interest in partnering with China with unambiguous clarity.
Souring of relations with Nepal due to the 2015 fuel blockade and the failed strategic interventions in Sri Lanka have both undermined India’s potential.
On the other hand, China’s multibillion dollar investments in Sri Lankan ports and cities have inched the country much closer to China.
Last year, Sri Lanka handed over its Hambantota port to China on a 99-year lease, which is also part of China’s ambitious “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI).
China has over the years promised billions for further infrastructure spending, which resource constrained India won’t be able to match.
What are the promising prospects for India to take forward?
Despite China’s deep pockets, the overt-assertiveness of China has driven many countries in East and Southeast Asia to seek friendship with India.
Some ASEAN countries, with its cultural connections to India, and a sizable Indian diaspora are has been active in its engagements with India.
Further, India enjoys global soft power through its art, literature, music, dance and cinema, an aspect that only the U.S. is at a better advantage than India.
India is perceived by many in East Asia as a friendly democracy, making the country a safe ally to have in the long run.
Japan has significantly increased its engagement with India and the two countries enjoy robust military ties.
India and Australia have initiated the ‘2+2’ dialogue signalling Canberra’s interest in deepening a maritime security partnership with India.
But India still has to develop a strategy to leverage its soft power and optimise its military power to effectively counter China’s cash and hard power.
What is the way ahead?
Better Deal - With China, India can strike a better bargain in comparison to the other smaller countries, due to its potential market and regional clout.
For example, China needs Indian support to take forward its BRI profitably, which is currently opposing it due to concerns regarding ‘China-Pak Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects’ that runs through Pak-Occupied-Kashmir.
By demonstrating a willingness to join the BRI, India can positively influence China to re-evaluate the details of the CPEC.
Innovativeness - Since India can’t match China’s resource spending, a strategic understanding with China can help India gain regional influence.
With a strategic partnership with China, India can better pursue its own regional groupings like BIMSTEC, BBIN & SAARC.
Thaw - China’s recently agreement with India on sharing data on the cross-border flow of waters from the Brahmaputra during the flood season.
Further, a protocol for enable all varieties of rice exports from India to China, has been signed, which is also a positive for India (for reducing trade deficit).
Recently, Chinese President Xi has also suggested a trade target of $100 billion by 2020, signalling a gradual thaw in relations, which needs to be taken ahead.
