Elections had recently concluded in Iraq and the Sairoon party under Shia cleric “Muqtada al-Sadr” has emerged as the single largest party.
Mr.Sadr’s inclusive domestic agenda is comforting, but coalition compulsions and international hostility against him might create political uncertainties.
How did the electioneering proceed?
Sairoon’s Campaign - Mr. Sadr and his party shed his previously sectarian image and campaigned on social justice and government failure.
Iran’s deepening influence in Iraq was opposed from a nationalist perspective and alliances were made with liberals and communists.
Others - The incumbent PM Haider al-Abadi’s Victory Alliance based his campaign on the successful war under his leadership against the ISIS.
The Al-Fatih coalition, who leaders have close ties with the Iranian establishment had campaigned on a pro-Shia agenda. ‘
Notably, Iraq’s political landscape is critical for Iran in the midst of the current challenges in West Asia and its ongoing tussle with the US (nuclear deal).
Result - Mr. Sadr’s Sairoon bloc emerging as the largest coalition in the 329-member Iraqi parliament, with 54 seats.
Mr. Abadi’s alliance came third with 42 seats while the pro-Iranian Al-Fatih coalition secured 47.
What does the result imply?
Iraq’s parliamentary election results marked a remarkable comeback for Muqtada al-Sadr, the nationalist Shia cleric after many years.
Notably, he had been sidelines by the Iraqi establishment and its Iranian backers and was seen as an enemy by the U.S. too.
Mr. Sadr’s success is largely a surprise and suggests that his inclusive narrative is gaining popularity even as Iraq is still to recover from recurring wars.
Electoral success of Sairoon bloc is certainly a good sign for Iraq, but it may not be easy for Mr. Sadr to convert this into a sustained political win.
This is because no bloc has absolute majority, and a new government will have to be formed through political negotiation.
Considering the political constrains, it is also not clear if the Sairoon bloc will be able to put up its candidate for Prime Minister-ship.
What are Iranian concerns?
Iran would be wary of Mr. Sadr’s rise, as he has been engaging the Saudis lately and is also critical of Iranian interventions in Iraq.
Notably, he had also demanded “Iran-trained popular militias” that are fighting the ISIS in Iraq to merge with the Iraqi National Army.
Besides, his Iraqi nationalism contradicts the cross-border Shia brotherhood that Iran is trying to promote in order to gain regional influence.
However, it is not in Iran’s interest to trigger further chaos and aid the growth of violent militant groups.
Hence, despite the bad blood between them, both sides might possibly find some common ground for rebuilding Iraq.
How does the future look?
Iraq is a complex multi-sect society that needs to see the rise of cross-sectarian political forces in order to be stable and ensure lasting peace.
In this context, Mr. Sadr’s broad-based politics offers considerable hope.
Notably, the incumbent PM Mr. Abadi has already offered support for a peaceful transition of power, which is another positive.
If there isn’t too much tampering from outside the borders of Iraq, then the future looks promising for the 1st time since the 2003 U.S. invasion.
