What is the issue?
Though it seems that US troops are set to withdraw from Afghanistan, but US will re-engage in the region due to security concerns.
What has happened in Afghanistan?
· The US has led a global counter-terrorism (CT) campaign-a multi-theatre war on terror- in response to 9/11 attack.
· The US-led airstrikes removed the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001 and helped in creating, training, equipping and assisting local security forces.
· As an outcome, Afghanistan wrote new democratic constitution and invited the UN missions.
How was local troops raised in Afghanistan?
· The earnest build-up of the Afghan forces started around 2009, when the Taliban posed a serious threat across Afghanistan.
· In the same year, the US declared a surge of troops and promised withdrawal by 2014.
· By January 2015, all security responsibilities were handed over to Afghan forces and US troops reduced to 10,000.
· But the war did not end as Afghan forces were still ill-experienced and ISIS was expanding its footprint across the globe.
· Hence a NATO-led Train-Advise-Assist Mission commenced for Afghan forces, while the US CT mission also continued in partnership with Afghan Forces.
Why US reduced its forces in the Afghanistan?
· The US has correctly assessed that AQ in Afghanistan stands degraded and ISIS and AQ networks are scattered across the globe.
· The threat of the caliphate is over and the threat of genuine ISIS taking root in Afghanistan has been reduced due to the US-Afghan partnership.
· Over the last seven years, Afghan forces got evolved and they started to conduct most operations on their own.
· So US signed the Doha agreement in February 2020, for a full withdrawal, hoping that Taliban would agree to be part of an interim government.
· As new players are in the peace process, including Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar, the US made the smart move to approach the UN to broker peace.
· However, it appears unlikely that China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran will send troops to fight the Taliban under a peacekeeping mission.
Will there be a shadow of US presence in the region?
· Due to the current geopolitical compulsions-US-China competition, China-Pakistan embrace, China-Russia strategic partnership, and China-Iran deal- Afghanistan has become strategically important.
· Thus, despite US withdrawal, there will be shadow of US-NATO in the region with a focus on preventing Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven.
Will US influence the national government?
· In the Afghanistan 2.0 engagement, few points are clear — Afghanistan is part of the US-led Coalition against ISIS.
· The Afghan government will take a sovereign decision to ask for training or operational support and the US has sufficient resources in the Central Command theatre on land, sea, and air.
· It will provide immediate support on request and has the option of drone strikes in Afghanistan and beyond.
· Also US will retain its soft power over Afghan institutions and personalities.
What can we infer from this?
· The UN-led peace process is expected to be slow, it is certain that the Taliban-ISKP-Pakistan will unleash much more violence.
· This chaos would create more ungoverned spaces strengthening the terror infrastructure.
· Hence, the developments in Afghanistan will continue to raise security concerns, far beyond South Asia.
Source: Indian Express
