Prime Minister Theresa May has recently spelt out some crucial details on Britain’s position on the Brexit deal.
But time is running out and the path ahead remains uncertain and thorny.
What is the current situation?
Negotiations haven’t preceded much and positions still seem to be far apart even after 20 months form since the referendum.
Irish Question - If no other agreement is reached between the EU and UK, Brussels has proposed to retain Northern Ireland within the customs union.
This would in effect create a border within the U.K. between the mainland and Northern Ireland (a UK territory), which hasn’t been accepted by Britain.
But the Republic of Ireland (Sothern Ireland), which is an EU member, has supported the proposal as it would help in retaining a soft border with the Northern Ireland.
Internal Contradictions - Soft Brexit supporters have argued for entire UK remaining within the European Customs Union to address Ireland issue.
But there has been an overall lack of coherence among the British lawmakers and right wing hardliners are vouching for a clear breakaway from the EU.
Other issues - Brexit is speculated to hurt the poorer sections more, for which neither the Parliament nor the government is prepared for.
Considering the increasingly protectionist attitude of Mr. Trump, a trade deal with the U.S. post Brexit also doesn’t seem likely now.
Notably, U.K. is betting big on post Brexit non-EU trade deals (India, Australia, US and other) to offset its market loss and sustain its economy.
What are the details that the British PM has spelt out?
Till recently, Britain had been merely stating its vision for “Brexit” rather the substantive aspects, which the EU leaders and industry were awaiting for.
In her latest speech, the British PM spelt out the details of the expected deal which clearly seemed to contradict the rosy picture that was portrayed till now.
She also noted that there will inherently be lesser market access for both the EU and UK and that the negotiation will definitely involve compromises.
While the EU has been calling UK’s approach as cherry picking of deals, PM May has asked the EU officials to display more flexibility.
The Specifics - Britain may choose to commit some areas of regulations like state aid and competition to remaining in step with the EU.
There was also a guaranteed that Britain would continue largely adhere to EU standards on worker’s rights and the environment.
It has been stressed that, the U.K. law would not necessarily be identical to EU law but would attempt to “achieve the same outcomes”.
She said that ways are being explored to retain U.K. within EU agencies such as those critical for chemicals, medicines and aerospace.
The PM also sought specific solutions on the Irish question - like an agreement to waive entry and exit declarations for goods moving across UK - EU borders.
A “trusted traders” scheme to reduce delays at borders has also been mooted.
How does the future look?
Ms. May’s carefully crafted speech with reality checks appeared to offer something to a spectrum of views and was well received by most quarters.
While this offered a glimpse of the complexity ahead, materialising even the realistic expectations spelt out is a difficult task.
Irish Republic PM Leo Varadkar has sought more clarity on the proposed customs union and single market challenge, which is critical for his country.
As there is less than a year to go before Britain officially leaves the EU, the deal needs to be made soon in order to avoid an abrupt disruption.
