The imminent rise of China will see it taking more interventionist stands in the Middle-East.
The potential consequences of such actions for India demand a greater scrutiny into the developments.
What are the precedents?
Britain manipulated the politics of the tribal Middle East in the early part of the 20th century to secure its oil needs.
In 1911, when Winston Churchill, argued for substituting oil for coal as the fuel for the British Navy, the cabinet was reluctant.
This was because Britain had an abundance of coal but no domestic oil, and a shift to oil would expose the navy to the vagaries of international oil supplies.
Churchill argued for the economic, logistical and strategic advantage that oil provided and even proposed a road-map for securing supplies through a combination of diplomacy and hard power.
This vision led to the birth of the ‘Anglo-Persian oil company’, and also marked the beginning of the Oil Era.
USA – Post the 2nd World War, America emerged as the dominant global political, economic and military power.
As oil supplies were crucial for sustaining all these, America often sidestepped the liberal principles that it championed.
It allied with monarchs and despotic dictators in the middle-east in line with what suited its personal interests.
What is China’s energy status?
Nearly 50% of China's oil import is sourced from the Middle East, mainly Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
China has been investing heavily in alternative energy resources to overcome this oil dependency.
Long-term gas supply deals with Russia, Central Asia and Australia have also been worked.
There are focussed efforts on the improving renewable resources and nuclear power.
Despite this diversification, oil imports are increasing due to the surge in demand for oil-fuelled vehicles.
What are the current political moves?
China is increasingly getting pro-active in international politics.
It has been adopting a low profile in the Middle East by avoiding any active power politics.
However, the dependency on oil imports increases the chances for its interventionist stance in the Middle-East.
Recently, it unleashed a slew of initiatives including aligning with Iran in supporting President Bashar-al-Assad of Syria.
Also, King Salman of Saudi Arabia was invited to Beijing recently and multiple agreements were signed.
There has also been a speculation that China was interested in picking up a stake in the Saudi national oil company, Aramco.
What are India’s concerns?
India has major strategic interests in the Middle East with its high dependence on the Middle East for oil needs.
Also, there are about 8 million Indian citizens working in the region, remitting around $70 billion annually.
China’s increasing presence and influence may lead to massive logistic and financial challenges for India.
