Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of U.S House Representatives and veteran Democrat politician recently visited Taiwan.
Her visit, ignoring China’s threats and warnings, has risked triggering a dangerous escalation amid already worsening ties.
Beijing has responded by announcing military drills near Taiwan and more countermeasures could follow.
What is the history of China-Taiwan relation?
Taiwan is located in the East China Sea, to the northeast of Hong Kong, north of the Philippines and south of South Korea, and southwest of Japan.
At present, it is a democracy with a separate government and a military.
Taiwan, earlier known as Formosa and formally as the Republic of China (ROC), was administered by the imperial Qing dynasty.
Its control passed to the Japanese in 1895 by the Treaty of Shimonoseki.
After the defeat of Japan in World War II, the island passed back into Chinese hands.
After the communists led by Mao Zedong won the civil war in mainland China, Chiang Kai-shek, the leader of the nationalist Kuomintang party, fled to Taiwan in 1949.
Chiang Kai-shek set up the government of the Republic of China on the island, and remained President until 1975.
In 1971, the UNGA recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the only legitimate representative of China to the global body and does not recognize Taiwan as a separate country.
In fact, only 13 countries around the world, mainly in South America, the Caribbean, Oceania, and the Vatican, recognizes Taiwan.
In recent years, Taiwan’s government has said only the Island’s 23 million people have the right to decide their future and that it will defend itself when attacked.
Since 2016, Taiwan has elected a party that leans towards independence.
What is the US stand over Taiwan?
Strategic ambiguity - The US has maintained a “One China Policy” since the 1970s, under which it recognizes Taiwan as a part of China.
US has unofficial ties with Taiwan as well and this strategy is known as strategic or deliberate ambiguity.
In May, 2022, President Biden said that the US would defend Taiwan if it was invaded, but it was soon clarified that America does not support Taiwan’s independence.
While the US has no formal ties with Taipei, it remains Taiwan’s most important international backer and arms supplier.
Why China is against the visit?
Beijing has never recognised the existence of Taiwan as an independent political entity, arguing that it was always a Chinese province.
The Chinese government also passed a law in 2005, giving Beijing the legal basis for military action if it judges Taiwan to have seceded or to be about to.
For China, the presence of a senior American figure in Taiwan would indicate some kind of US support for Taiwan’s independence.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijiang has said that the visit would severely undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
It will gravely impact the foundation of China-US relations and send a seriously wrong signal to Taiwan independence forces.
What causes the avoidable crisis to escalate?
Domestic political considerations appear to be driving both sides into their respective corners in this entirely avoidable crisis.
U.S. View - Officials in the Biden administration and the U.S. military had called on Ms. Pelosi to reconsider the visit.
But, China’s public warnings have forced US to ensure the trip as cancellation would be politically costly for the Biden administration.
The U.S had clarified that the visit is driven largely by Ms. Pelosi, who has been sharply critical of China’s policies, rather than by the Biden administration.
But it has not appeared to have assuaged Beijing.
China’s View - Mr. Xi is three months away from a politically sensitive Party Congress that will mark the start of his third term.
A sharp response would discourage other countries from engaging with Taiwan at higher political levels and it may also shine Mr. Xi’s status at home.
The fact that neither side wants, nor can afford, a military confrontation may yet see the current tensions defused with each side walking away and claiming a show of strength for their domestic audiences.
