Erosion of strategic power – Saudi Arabia

What is the issue?

There is a possibility of incremental erosion of Saudi Arabia’s strategic power with the death of a dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

What is the khashoggi case?

• Jamal Khashoggi is a well-known journalist and critic of the Saudi government.
• He went into self-imposed exile in the US last year and from there, he criticised the policies of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman through his monthly columns in the Washington Post.
• He recently visited the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, from where he was disappeared.
• According to Saudi Arabia, a general despatched a 15-member team to Istanbul to confront Khashoggi as there is a general order in the Kingdom to bring back dissidents living abroad.
• Inside the consulate, a fight erupted between Khashoggi and the security men, and the journalist died when he was put in a chokehold.
• Riyadh also claims that the crown prince was unaware of the operation.
• However, Turkey says that there is strong evidence to suggest the "savage" killing of Khashoggi was planned days in advance.
• It says that three teams of 15 Saudi nationals arrived in Istanbul on separate flights in the days and hours leading up to the murder.
• It also added that the group had removed the security cameras and surveillance footage from the consulate building prior to Khashoggi's arrival.
• The journalist was tortured and killed on the consulate premises and that his body was then removed.
• They claim to have audio and video evidence to support this claim, but these have not yet been made public.

How Saudi Arabia is functioning under the crown prince?

• Saudi Arabia has declared Prince Mohammed bin Salman(MBS) as the kingdom's crown prince in 2017.
• After moving to the front of the line to the throne, MBS has promoted himself as a social and economic reformer who could lead the Salafi kingdom to the 21st century.
• But the reality has been more complex, wherein MBS appears to be reckless and power-hungry.
• He has launched some reforms in the process of centralising huge powers in his hands.
• The way Khashoggi was murdered has been a shock even to supporters of the Crown Prince.
• Riyadh maintains that it was a rogue operation that went bad, which is a feeble argument which even his ardent supporters would find hard to buy.
• The perpetrators didn’t think of the diplomatic consequence and they are used to getting away with disastrous policy decisions.
• MBS had initially promised his people to loosen the grip of the conservatives on culture and liberalise the economy further to make it less dependent on oil.
• But this was the means towards power and influence in the larger power struggle within the palace.
• MBS may have allowed women to drive and cinema halls to open, but he has also gone after every potential rival in the palace.
• Severe actions were carried out last year in the name of fighting corruption and to take control over all arms of the security establishment.
• While the important targets were confined to a luxury hotel for weeks, dozens of other critics and clerics were incarcerated in unknown places.

What are his actions in the foreign policy arena?

• MBS’s vision is of a stronger monarchy that uses fear at home and maintains an aggressive foreign policy.
• However, most of his foreign policy decisions have been counterproductive.
• As Defence Minister, he has been the main architect of the war on Yemen, which has yielded a humanitarian catastrophe.
• Yet, Saudi Arabia has never been held accountable for its actions, while it holds the support of U.S.
• The same recklessness was visible in Riyadh’s blockade last year against neighbouring Qatar.
• It said Qatar was supporting terrorism in the region and made a host of demands for the blockade to be lifted, including shutting down the Al Jazeera television station and severing ties with Iran.
• But the ties remain tense as Qatar has rejected the demands.
• Saudi Arabia detained Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Riyadh, from where he announced his resignation last year.
• However, on his return to Lebanon after certain weeks, he was again made his entry to the office of the Prime Minister.
• Saudi Arabia also recalled its Ambassador to Canada and froze new trade and investment after Canada raised concerns over the arrests of women rights activists in the Kingdom.

What does it imply?

• The Saudis have not been perturbed about the results of their actions and they are not strategic in dealing with foreign countries.
• The crown prince, despite promises of reforms, appears to be extremely intolerant of any criticism and his responses are disproportionately aggressive.
• He also continues to enjoy a sense of impunity, with the solid support from the U.S. administration.
• Saudi Arabia may still get away as the U.S. is unlikely to sacrifice its strategic relationship with the Kingdom.
• The latest khashoggi episode also shows that the misadventures of the Crown Prince are hurting Saudi Arabia geopolitically.
• In Yemen, the Saudis have still not won over the Houthi rebels.
• When Qatar rejected Saudi demands, Riyadh did not have an alternate plan to deal with the country.
• At a time when Sunni Gulf monarchies are supposed to stand in unity against Iran, Saudi Arabia’s hostility towards Qatar has only created new rifts within West Asia.
• It has lost the Syrian civil war and its military and monetary investments there have been in vain.
• The Khashoggi case is a public relations disaster for a country which wants to be the leader of the Sunni world.
• Thus, there has been an incremental erosion of Saudi Arabia’s strategic power under MBS and the Kingdom will have to deal with it soonest.

Source: The Hindu