Recent Indian study finds that it is possible to forecast the outbreak of the dengue.
What is the study about?
Study focuses on changes in a factor called extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the dengue virus, by taking into account daily and monthly mean temperatures different climatic zones.
The EIP is the time taken for incubation of the virus in the mosquito.
During this period, after the mosquito draws blood that is rich in viruses, it escapes the gut and passes through the mosquito’s body and reaches its salivary glands.
Once this happens, the mosquito is infectious and capable of transmitting the virus to a human host.
What are the outcomes of the study?
Climatic conditions play an important role in EIP.
Lower temperatures (17-18°C) result in longer EIPs thereby leading to decreased virus transmission.
From 17 to 30°C, dengue transmission increases fourfold, feeding increases because of the enhanced metabolism of the mosquito, leading to shorter EIPs.
A further increase in temperature beyond 35°C is detrimental to the mosquito’s survival.
There is a strong correlation between rainfall and dengue numbers, they propose an increase in breeding grounds for mosquitoes.
Given its close link with both temperature and rainfall, it is possible to forecast the outbreak of dengue.
How it helps in Disease control?
This climate-based dengue forecasting model could help health authorities assess the disease intensity in a geographic region.
Based on thisauthorities can plan disease-control operations well in advance and optimise the use of resources meticulously.
Factors such as population density and migration also need to be included for future risk assessment studies.
This will help in mitigating the disease and strategic disease control.
