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Indo-Pak and West Asian Geopolitics

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April 05, 2018

What is the issue?

  • The bilateral relationship and cooperation between India and Iran have been fairly good. 
  • But despite the well crafted diplomacy, Iran’s equations vis-à-vis Pakistan could be an irritant for India in the long run.

How is Indo-Iran relationship shaping up?

  • Positives - For New Delhi, Iran is the gateway to connect with Central Asian countries.
  • India is investing in port and rail-road projects in the country.
  • Iran is also a key partner for cooperation in the energy sector.
  • India also shares centuries-old cultural ties with it.  
  • Irritants - US is clearly on a confrontational path with Iran.
  • Iran is thus not comfortable with India because of its strategic partnership with the US.
  • Notably, Trump is currently undoing the Iranian nuclear deal and Iran has also disapproved the new Afghan policy of the US.
  • Similarly, the blossoming India-Israel bonhomie and a growing sympathy for Kashmiri separatists among Iranian politicians are concerns.
  • These are probably the reasons why the Fazad B gas-field that India discovered is yet to be allocated to India for exploitation.

How is Pak-Iran relationship shaping up?

  • Strategic situation - Iran continues to have strong ties with Pakistan despite Pakistan’s aggression against India which is a point of concern.
  • Such an outlook is partly due to Pakistan’s effort to sustain a cordial equation with Iran for strategic reasons as it shares a 900 km border with it.
  • Notably, the border runs along Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, which is a disturbed area that is seeing insurgencies and foreign meddling.
  • There have also been occasional border skirmishes with the Iranian military, which if builds up could open a third confrontational front for Pakistan (the others being Indian and Afghan borders).
  • Additionally, Pakistan sees a partner in Iran for its activities in Afghanistan and there is also immense mutual economic benefit in Iran’s Gas.
  • Recent Developments - Pakistan’s army chief Gen Bajwa paid a three-day visit to Tehran last year, which was the first such engagement in 20 years.
  • There was considerable enthusiasm as Gen Bajwa offered cooperation in missile technology and also discussed about a gas pipeline as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  
  • Notably, while BRI is shunned by India, Iran sees it as an opportunity and even desires to get Chabahar connected to it (which India is developing).
  • Additionally, Iran has even invited China to invest partly in Chabahar, which would smash any strategic significance that India associates with it as a counter to Gwadhar.
  • Iran has also thanked Pakistan for its help in countering Sunni extremists on its soil, which is in direct contract to India’s view on Pakistan.

How does the future look?

  • The strength of the Pak-Iran equation will hinge largely on how Pakistan’s approach to Saudi Arabia shapes up.
  • While Iran and Saudi are oppositely placed in the West Asian geo-political grid, Pakistan is closely aligned with Saudi in many international forums.
  • Pakistan is in fact standing by Saudi’s side in Yemeni and Syrian conflict, which pits it opposed to Iran, which is Saudi’s chief regional contender. 
  • Notably, even the Riyadh based Islamic Military Alliance is headed by Pakistan’s ex-military chief Rahel Sheriff.
  • Pakistan has tried hard to not take sides in the Saudi-Iran dichotomy, but this approach might prove hard at all times.
  • Also, while India maintains cordial relationships with all powers, it is not clear if Pakistani fallout with any of them would benefit India in any way.

Source: Indian Express

 

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