India and Russia have enjoyed a historically strong relationship based on mutual trust and cooperation but there has been a detoriation in recent years.
Considering the rise of an expansivist China in Asia, it is very important for India to revitalise its time tested partnership with Russia.
What has Russia’s geopolitical outlook been realigning?
Anti U.S. attitude - Moscow’s policies are driven largely by relentless hostility towards the US and containing the western alliance led by US.
This has literally driven Moscow into the arms of Beijing, and has resulting in a virtual Moscow-Beijing alliance to counter American hegemony.
While this trend would clearly pit Russia into an orbit that is hostile to India, there have nevertheless been efforts by Delhi to strengthen ties with Moscow.
Internationally, India and Russia work together in forums like BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Also, Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral is another forum of cooperation that was initially promoted by Russia.
Taliban Factor - Russian has joined with China and Pakistan calling for negotiations with Afghan Taliban, which will give legitimacy to the Taliban.
This is ironic, given that approximately 14,000 Soviet soldiers were killed in action between 1979 and 1989 against the ISI-backed radical Afghan groups.
While this will cement Russia into what is an anti-India pole, it will also weaken India’s international rhetoric against terrorism.
How has Indo-Russian defense cooperation fared?
The approximately 270 Russian Sukhoi-30 fighters are the main element of the IAF’s strike and air defence potential.
An aircraft carrier with MiG-29 aircrafts, a leased nuclear submarine, guided missile frigates and over 900 T-90 tanks are other important equipments.
Multi-barrelled launchers, and the Indo-Russia collaborative development Brahmos missiles are currently vital defence arsenal.
Light helicopters and S-400 Triumph air defence systems are recent additions to the vast amount of Russian equipment in our military.
Russian defence exports to India in recent years account for 39% of its total exports and there are clear mutual interdependence in the trade.
While there are some concerns about Russian recent defence sales to Pakistan, there isn’t much market there due to Pakistan’s financial limitations.
How has the Indo-Russian trade relations fared?
While limited connectivity has constrained merchandise trade greatly, mutual cooperation in investments in the petrochemical sector has been significant.
The recent $12.9-billion deal for the acquisition of Essar Oil refinery by Russia’s Rosneft, is one of the single biggest foreign investments in India.
India’s investments in Russia’s oil and gas set is currently $8 billion and is set to reach $15 billion by 2020, as India is planning investments in Siberian Oil.
Moreover, there are substantial prospects for increasing Russian supplies of coal, diamonds, LNG and fertilisers to India.
There is also considerable potential for Russia and India to cooperate in executing projects in other countries such as Afghanistan and Vietnam.
Significantly, Russia and India are presently cooperating in the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Bangladesh.
How significant is the China factor?
Rise of China - Beijing is clearly rising as the sole dominant power centre in Asia, and is also fast narrowing its gap with the US on the global stage.
This presents a serious challenge to India as increasing Chinese assertiveness in the Indian Ocean region has been ambitious and univocal.
While the US and Japan acknowledge the vitality of India for the geo-political stability of Asia, Russia hasn’t showed the same warmth.
This could possibly be due to Moscow apprehensions about India’s membership in alliances like Quad (US, Australia, Japan, India).
Historic Factors - China’s superior economic prowess gives it an advantage in negotiating with Russia, but there are historical distates between the two.
Russia has a long border with China, and the latter’s meteoric rise is perceived as a threat to Russia’s Siberian region and Vladivostok.
The former Soviet Union (Now Russia) had a rickety relationship with China and there were even significant border skirmishes in 1968-70s.
Nonetheless, Moscow will continue to play second fiddle to China whenever it suits its interests and India needs to show dexterity to handle situations.
