There is now clear signs that relationships between Indian and the U.S. is strained.
Steps must be urgently taken to arrest this drift.
What is the evolving dynamics?
The U.S. President Trump had decided to walk out of the multilateral nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) with Iran.
This was subsequently followed by the U.S. Congress’s CAATSA law, which imposed sanctions on Iran, Russia and North Korea.
Mr. Trump is also said to be insistent on tough sanctions against all those continuing to engage with Iran and Russia.
These developments have direct effects for India, as Iran is a major crude supplier and Russia is a major defence seller to India.
Additionally, U.S. has also been harsh on countries like India and China for allegedly having “skewed trade tariffs” and “big trade surpluses” with the U.S.
What has been India’s reaction?
On its part, the Modi government has openly asserted a clear change away from the pro-U.S. tilt of India’s foreign policy.
In the recent “Shangri-La Dialogue”, Modi asserted ‘strategic autonomy’ in foreign affairs, indicating India’s growing independence from the U.S. block.
Defying the U.S. rhetoric demanding reduction in engagements with Russia and Iran, bilateral were held with both of these countries recently.
India has also promised to raise oil imports from Iran this year, and has committed to increase engagements on the Chabahar port project.
In addition, India has been negotiating a $5.5 billion deal with Russia for the S-400 Triumf missile systems, all of which is likely to attract U.S. ire.
How does the future look?
U.S. has always pressured allies to limit their ties with countries that it considers a threat to the international order.
But Trump administration has been going public with its ultimatum and deadlines, which is making it difficult for partners to comply.
India’s present international engagements are likely to trigger U.S. sanctions unless the two countries reach a compromise soon.
But political will to address these issues is clearly not there presently, as both governments are engrossed in their own calculus.
Notably, there has been little Indo-U.S. political engagement lately and even the scheduled “Foreign & Defence Minsters” 2+2 dialogue has been postponed.
Quick Facts
Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD)
SLD (or IISS - ‘Asia Security Summit’), is an inter-governmental security forum conducted by “International Institute for Strategic Studies” (IISS).
IISS is an independent international think tank that intends to cultivate among policy makers of different countries, a sense of community.
SLD is attended by high ranking government and military officials of 28 Asia-Pacific states and is held annually in Singapore’s Shangri-La Hotel since 2002.
