Israel’s PM has made a strong pitch for scrapping the Iranian Nuclear Deal by citing documentary proof exposing Iranian nuclear ambitions.
But the revelations were merely a restatement of the previously known, and make no substantial case for scrapping the nuclear deal (JCPOA).
What were Israel’s allegations?
Israeli dispensation recently claimed that Iran has nuclear weapon ambitions by referring to multiple documents that were accessed by Israeli spies.
Israel has also made a call for scrapping the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA), which is also known as the Iranian nuclear deal.
While the allegations got wide attention, there was little beyond what was already out in the public domain.
It was widely know that Iran had a robust nuclear weapons programme as early as 2007-08 and sanctions were placed to avert weapons development.
But Iran had always maintained that its nuclear programme was for civilian purposes and held its ground for 5 years despite severe sanctions.
What is JCPOA?
As there were mounting evidence that Iran was clearly proceeding towards acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities, sanctions were imposed on Iran.
With all major powers obliging to the sanctions, Iranian economy came under severe strain for over 5 years till 2015.
P5 countries (US, UK, China, France and Russia) and Germany together negotiated with Iran and arrived at a compromise for removing sanctions and also halting the nuclear program.
Hence, JCPOA was signed, which lifted the economic sanctions on Iran and also restricted its nuclear program to civilian use technologies only.
JCPOA also opened up Iranian nuclear installations to international inspections to ensure compliance.
Presently, U.S. President Trump has to ratify the deal in a few days if the U.S. has to retain its stake in the deal.
But many have the feeling that the US president won’t sign as he has openly aired his dislikes for the Obama era deal (2015).
Notably, the Obama administration had pursued the Iranian deal despite opposition from two of the U.S.’s West Asian allies - Israel and Saudi Arabia.
But the new U.S. administration under Trump has been taking a increasingly hostile line towards Iran, and which is to the liking of Israel.
What is the way ahead?
Even if the pre-nuclear deal documents indicate that Iran intended to acquire nuclear weapons, there is no indication that Iran has violated JCPOA.
Additionally, neither the US nor the Israel seems to think that JCPOA has been violated by Iran.
Hence, if Iran indeed had an active weapons programme as Israel claims, the nuclear deal has ended it – which only argues well for the deal.
In other words, the U.S. and Israel are yet to make a convincing argument on why the Iran deal should be scrapped.
Also, if the US decides to pull out of the deal, then there is the possibility that Iran might just scrap the deal in its entirety.
This runs the risk of Iran restarting its nuclear program, which is the least desired outcome for all.
The U.S. should hence assess the agreement based on its merit and outcomes, and not be driven on narrow geopolitical or ideological calculations.
