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Monsoon Prediction for Central Indian Region

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April 18, 2018

Why in news?

A study by independent meteorologists has predicted a decline in rainfall over the Central Indian region.

What is the finding?

  • Low Pressure Systems (LPS) usually bring rain to this area.
  • But there is a declining trend in the number of these Low Pressure Systems (LPS).
  • The region will witness a 45% decline in the frequency of LPS activity.
  • About 50 years from now, the monsoon over central Indian region is expected to reduce.
  • This could result in lesser rainfall in this heavily rain-fed agrarian belt.  
  • This is expected to be realised during the decades spanning between 2065 and 2095.
  • The study also highlights a 10% increase in the instances of LPS forming over land.
  • This would eventually lead to extreme rainfall over the North Indian plains.

How do LPSs work?

  • Low Pressure Systems (LPS) originate in the Bay of Bengal.
  • They travel landwards in a southeast-northwest direction.
  • It crosses Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.
  • This region is known as the core monsoon zone.
  • Most LPS pass by this region during the June to September monsoon season.
  • This makes it a very crucial region to understand the monsoon.
  • A new test-bed facility is being set up on the outskirts of Bhopal to study these key rain-bearing systems.

Why is the decline?

  • One of the main reasons for decrease in rainfall could be the large-scale decrease in the moist westerly winds.
  • These winds, called monsoon circulations, travel from the Arabian Sea along India’s west coast onto the mainland.
  • In addition, these are observed to have shifted northwards from their normal track during their forward propagation.
  • Climate change effect on the monsoon, especially over the core monsoon zone, is seen as inevitable.
  • With the rise in global temperature, the atmosphere would have a much higher moisture holding capacity.
  • But at a certain point this capacity would collapse, leading to extreme rainfall events and absence of consistent rainfall.
  • Extreme rainfall events are already found to be increasing in recent years.

 

Source: Indian Express

 

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