North Korea's Denuclearisation

What is the issue?

• North Korea's upcoming meet with the US is expected to give a shape to its denuclearisation plan.

• With its effort to gain the trust of world nations and remove the sanctions, a look at the means and probabilities become essential.

What is the recent meet on?

• North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in met for the first time recently.
• They have pledged to ensure peace, prosperity and unification of the Korean peninsula.
• North Korea has already pledged to close one of its nuclear test sites.

What is the complexity?

• Differences between the two leaders on the question of denuclearisation are evident.
• South Korea emphasised that complete denuclearisation was essential for peace.
• However, North Korea did not make its stance clear on this front.
• There was a clear indication of the need for equality between the two, during the talks.
• However, this equality is hard to be materialised in terms of nuclear security in the short term.

How have denuclearisations been?

• Denuclearisation is a key to the whole process, as it means different things to different people.
• For the U.S., the models are Iraq, Libya and the former republics of the Soviet Union.
• They all surrendered their nuclear assets in return for peace and normalisation.
• But North Korea seems to be opting for a different model.

What is North Korea's possible plan?

• Recognition - It much resembles the Indian model nuclear deal.
• Under this, it gets recognised as a “technologically advanced responsible state”.
• On the basis of this, it in turn gets certain strategic assurances.
• It is an effort to legitimise the nuclear arsenal and earn recognition as a responsible state.

• Credibility - India arrived at the nuclear deal with the US by pointing to the direct nuclear threat from China and in turn from Pakistan.
• Mr. Kim has gone further by suspending all missile tests and taking steps to shut down a nuclear test site.
• This is much in line with earlier US 's demand to India to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty to avoid sanctions.
• Relations with US - Kim is also likely to use the Indian model to bargain for normal relations with the U.S.
• This may be on the basis of guarantees such as:

1. minimum deterrence
2. non-first use
3. no tests
4. commitment to nuclear disarmament in keeping with global developments, etc

Why is this model uncertain for North Korea?

• Trust and confidence in India as a responsible state and various other factors were behind the historic nuclear deal.
• Unlike India, the track followed by the earlier North Korean leaders and the present one appeared in disorder.
• This is ever since North Korea sought to leave the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) regime.
• The posture was of threat and arrogance rather than peace or reconciliation.
• It is now inclined to negotiate its way into removing sanctions and shaping its future.

• But the U.S. would be far more reluctant to make any concessions to North Korea without an agreement on denuclearisation.
• The forthcoming negotiations will prove whether the Indian model will help North Korea in restoring peace.
• Some amount of domestic reform at home, in terms of civil liberties, would help North Korea make its case better.

Source: The Hindu