The IMD forecast an above-normal temperatures over much of India in the summer months.
Also, the Australian international weather bureau says there is a 50% prospect of a similar phenomenon this year as well, thus indicating a debilitated monsoon and weaker agricultural prospects.
What are the facts?
NASA has pointed out, there has been a record three-year warming trend, with 2016 the hottest and 16 of 17 warmest years recorded, occurred since 2001.
Global weather in recent times has come under pressure from the El Nino warming that began in 2015.
But, the effect of El Nino on the global temperature is only a small part of the overall rise, indicating that the trend could be correlated with the rise in greenhouse gases.
India, a major emitter of GHGs, has classified 2016 as the century’s warmest year, with an increase of 0.91ºC over the long-term average.
What the government must do to adopt?
We must shift away from further high-emission pathways in the economy and adopt leapfrogging technologies.
It is also a call for policy initiatives to build resilience by improving water harvesting and expanding tree cover, including in cities.
For rural India, we must build surface irrigation facilities such as ponds through the employment guarantee scheme and climate funds.
In urban areas, more reservoirs needs to be built to augment water supply.
A carefully planned school examination schedule could spare the students from the worst of the summer.
Last year, schools in some states have decided to extend their summer vacations by a week or two. It might become necessary again this year.
Administrative decisions for summer management will need to be refined on the basis of coming IMD updates.
What should be done to save farmers?
The IMD, ICAR and agriculture universities should work towards a more precise, micro-level understanding of rainfall, temperature, crop choice and inputs, particularly in rainfed areas.
The focus of farm research should shift towards mapping climate patterns at the taluk level over long periods to arrive at better surmises on the monsoon.
Research focus on the effects of input-intensive farming in irrigated regions has led to the neglect of more traditional areas such as managing rain variability.
Climate intelligence must form a more integral part of agriculture policy and extension services.
Finally, there must be a concerted shift towards integrated, sustainable farming, with agro-forestry practices.
Farmers need credit and support to manage this transition.
