India’s stature in the international arena has been steadily growing over the years due to various structural and economic aspects.
While other geopolitical issues are important, New Delhi must give its immediate neighbourhood in South Asia its fullest attention.
What are India’s recent initiatives in the extended neighbourhood?
Palestine - India has been very skilful in manoeuvring contentious issues in this region with considerable success like in the case of Israel and Palestine.
India could, thus, successfully handle an Israeli PM’s visit to India just prior to Mr. Modi’s visit to Palestine, and yet avoid negative fallouts.
It could also separate the technological outreach of the Israeli PM Mr. Netanyahu’s visit without having to take a clear stand on Jerusalem’s status.
Likewise, the bilateral with Palestine saw the conclusion of as many as six agreements and the expression of hope for full independence to Palestine.
UAE - Trade, economic ties and counter-terror aspects have been on a growth curve, with massive investments too flowing India’s way.
Oman - There exists an established long standing friendship with Oman.
Hence, option of closer naval co-operation and of reaching an agreement to give the Indian Navy access to “Duqm port” did not prove difficult.
ASEAN Outreach - The 2018 republic day celebrations saw all 10 ASEAN countries being represented at the highest level, which was a grand success.
But the recently concluded ASEAN-India Summit urged India to play a pro-active role in the Asia-Pacific region, without needing to take hard decisions.
This is possibly a dampened support for the Quad Initiative (India, Japan, Australia and USA), for which ASEAN hasn’t come out openly in support.
Significantly, this is in striking contrast to the overwhelming support that these countries have extended to the “Belt and Road Initiative” of China.
Despite such inconsistencies with ASEAN, it is still very manageable and what requires attention is the immediate neighbourhood (south Asia).
How does the scenario look in India’s immediate neighbourhood?
Trouble is mounting in almost all neighbouring countries, and India cannot succeed without looking at some hard options.
Nepal - A leftist government has taken over in Nepal, whose leaders in the past have clearly taken a pro-China attitude vis-a-vis India.
The responsibility of aiding the aspirations of the Terai population through ensuring a balanced constitutional setup weighs heavily on India.
The challenge is that this has to be done without antagonising the Nepali state.
Bangladesh - A special court in Dhaka recently convicted opposition BNP leader and three-time PM Khaleda Zia on corruption charges.
As this debars her for contesting polls (elections are slated for 2019), the possibility of a prolonged unrest in Bangladesh is very much alive.
Dealing with both Nepal and Bangladesh will need more than fine gestures; they will need far more closer monitoring.
Maldieves - Recently, political tensions have been mounting in Maldives due to the repressive regime, which is threatening to spill out of control.
India has tacitly been backing the opposition and is vouching for a decocratic solution form within Maldives and has largely been mincing words.
Considering the increasingly pro-China tilt of the present dispensation and the gravity of the situation, although risky, India can’t afford to be passive for long.
Notably, a free trade agreement had been signed between Maldives and China recently, along with allocating for multiple infrastructure projects.
Notably, anti-India activities and Saudi & Pakistan backed Islamic radicalists have been growing in strength in the island for a while now.
Pakistan - Increasingly, Pakistan is resembling a failed state in the face of what seems like a virtual collapse of its public policy.
As intuitive attitudes of the military and a free run of terrorists has come to prevail, this seems to be affecting India more than it is affecting Pakistan.
Despite US warnig Pakistan of dire consequences, there seems to be no course correction and anti-India propaganda and radicalism has been escalating.
Afghanistan - The daily massacre of people even within urban districts have become common over the years in Afghanistan.
Even the combined strengths of local police, Afghan military and the foreign forces aren’t able to weed out the menace, partly due to Pakistan’s hand.
Despite periodic optimistic forecasts of the Taliban being in retreat, Afghan government is still reeling under intense pressure to even sustain itself.
The collapse of the Afghan state does have severe consequences for India and other nations in the vicinity, which calls for decisive action.
Apart from the human cost, New Delhi has spent over $2 billion in providing humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan.
What needs to be done?
A concensus across parties needs to emerge on pressing foreign policy concerns across domains for deriving the best possible outcomes.
While West Aisa, Asia Pacific and South East Asia are important domains, India’s primary focus should remain in the south Asian neighbourhood.
If India seems uninterested in ensuring peace and stablitly in the region, there would be an undsireable spike in the influence of extra-regional players.
