Since the start of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban has made rapid territorial gains.
This calls for a proactive role by both the Afghan government and the regional powers who are invested in the country’s long-term stability.
How is Taliban’s control evolving?
90% of U.S. withdrawal is complete.
With this, the Taliban have taken control of 195 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, and are contesting 129 others.
Most of their recent victories are in the northern provinces of Badakhshan and Takhar.
These had notably resisted Taliban rule in the 1990s.
In several northern districts, Afghan troops have either surrendered or retreated.
What is the impending threat?
The north is home to Afghanistan’s elite power brokers and leaders.
If this is lost, the risk of a total collapse of the government in Kabul would increase.
The government still controls most of the provincial capitals and cities.
But they are practically surrounded by the Taliban.
The pace of the Taliban’s advancement in the countryside is on the rise.
It is thus possible that they could launch an offensive to take the population centres once the foreign troops are out.
On the other hand, the Taliban’s strategy is still not clear.
Their political office in Doha started peace talks with Afghan government representatives in September 2020.
It continues to say that they were committed to the dialogue.
But on the battlefield in Afghanistan, they continue a relentless campaign aimed at capturing more territories.
Why is the situation so?
Part of the problem was the total abdication of leadership and responsibility by the U.S., which invaded Afghanistan 20 years ago.
When direct talks between the U.S. and the Taliban began, the U.S.’s focus was on exiting the war.
It was not into finding a peaceful settlement to the crisis that it partly created.
Therefore, the U.S. failed to put pressure on the Taliban to extract concessions.
Instead, it struck a deal with them, completely ignoring the concerns of the Kabul government.
Now, the Taliban are much more powerful on the ground.
Even if the peace process with the Afghan government is revived after American pull-out, they would negotiate from a position of strength.
What is the way forward?
A violent takeover of the country by the Taliban, like in 1996, would not serve anybody’s interests.
The Taliban would also not find international legitimacy if they capture Kabul through bloodshed.
Afghan’s past reveals that one-party regimes [the communist regime, Mujahideen or the Taliban] failed to stabilise the country or sustain themselves in the long term.
Given this, the warring parties’ focus should shift towards settlement and building lasting structures of power.
The given conditions should not stop Kabul and regional powers China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and India from seeking a political settlement.
