US's Withdrawal from Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
iasparliament
February 04, 2019
What is the issue?
The U.S. has decided to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty with Russia.
The U.S.’s unilateral withdrawal from a nuclear treaty threatens to trigger a new arms race.
How did the INF treaty come about?
The INF treaty has its origins in the Euromissile crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s.
The Soviet Union deployed the SS-20, an advanced and accurate missile that could strike most of Europe.
America had short-range missiles in Europe, which could not reach Soviet territory, and long-range ones at home and aboard submarines, but nothing in this middle category.
In the late 1980s, the intermediate-range missiles were seen as a trigger for nuclear war because of their short flight times, as little as 10 minutes.
In this backdrop, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty was signed in 1987 by U.S.'s Ronald Reagan and Russia's Mikhail Gorbachev.
The treaty barred both countries from deploying land-launched cruise missiles in the 500- to 5,500-km range.
It did not, however, cover air- or sea-launched weapons, although those missiles fly similar distances.
What is US's rationale in scrapping it?
Russia appears to have been violating the treaty in letter and spirit.
In 2008, the U.S. expressed concern over the Russian Novator 9M729 missile tests.
Again during the 2014 crisis in Ukraine, the U.S. alleged that Moscow was testing a ground-based cruise missile.
Despite this, the U.S.'s current move cannot be regarded as purely retaliatory.
Both Mr. Trump and his National Security Adviser were expressing a sense of disregard for arms control agreements.
Trump had for long maintained that he would refuse to abide by a treaty that other parties were disregarding.
Besides this, China's growing arsenal poses a threat for strategists in the U.S.
China is, reportedly, expanding its cruise-missile arsenal, potentially neutralising the capability of American warships that could seek to approach the Chinese coastline during a standoff.
Trump now strategizes that he could develop ground-launched missiles and keep Russia's aggression in check through a military-posture superiority.
He could also save the exchequer some cash as this option is cheaper than cruise missiles.
What are the concerns?
The move signals a changing balance of power in global nuclear politics taken forward by China’s rise as a regional power.
Shifting geo-politics also requires that European concerns be factored into strategic discussions on the INF.
This is particularly because it is Europe that is most immediately threatened by the Russian stockpile.
But it appears that Mr. Trump may not have consulted with European allies before announcing the suspension of the treaty.
What could the implications be?
Russia might now build up intermediate-range missiles aimed at Europe.
In turn, America would speed up its pursuit of a matching capability.
With a potential missile race, there is a concern that the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) might also be scrapped.
START is a US-Russian arms-control deal that covers mostly longer-range weapons - intercontinental ballistic missiles, due to be renewed in 2021.
Given all these, in effect, the U.S. seems to be loosing the scope of coming to an agreement with Russia on an issue of global concern.
