Peace Process in Syria

Why in news?

The 7 year-old Syrian conflict is moving toward a possible end with the defeat of IS and weak ceasefire agreements with the many rebel groups.

How has peace negotiations progressed?

• Astana Peace Process, (sponsored by Russia, Iran & Turkey) and the U.N.-sponsored Geneva Talks have been inconclusive thus far.

• Russia has pressed the military advantage gained to find a lasting political solution by hosting Syrian President Assad recently.
• Notably, the Russian side had also had multiple consultations with other stakeholders - U.S., Saudi, Egyptian and Israel.
• Also, in tandem with the Russian initiatives, Saudi sponsored a two-day meeting of around 140 rival groups in Riyadh.
• In this, an agreement was reached to field a unified rebel delegation at the Geneva talks in future meetings.
• They also reportedly dropped their long-standing demand for the removal of President Assad, which could ease tensions.

What are the challenges?

• The intense foreign involvements that pursue divergent objectives have created a big mess in Syria – which needs to be overcome.
• Divergence - Notably, there is no unanimous opionion in support of the Assad regime and the legitimacy of major rebel groups.
• The Kurdish quest for self determination is also highly controversial as this spreads across borders.
• Similarly, apprehension about Iranian gains in the Syria have also been a major concern for countries like Saudi & Israel.
• Also, the future polity envisioned for Syria range from the continuation of “Shiaite Ba’at Allawite domination” under Assad to the establishment of a “Sunni Rebublic”.  
• Enacting Peace – A sustainable and speedy agreement on peace is crutial as prolonged negotiations will lead to further crisis.
• Any peace process involves funds for reconstruction and stakeholders should ensure sufficient funds for development.

• The best one can realistically hope for is a congruence of major players  and progressive withdrawal of foreign military presence.  

What are the stakes for India?

• By keeping a low profile during the conflict, India has earned wider acceptability across the Syrian social spectrum.
• Before the war, bilateral trade between the two countries was over half a billion dollars annually, with India enjoying a trade surplus.
• In a post-conflict situation, India has a potential role in institution building and reconstruction.
• India could also capitalise on its rapo with Iran to further its economic prospects Syria.

Source: The Hindu